Western politicians have repeatedly called on China to limit or end its tacit support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In response, China’s leadership insists it is committed to peace and respects the territorial integrity of nations.
Unlike most United Nations members, however, China has never condemned Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the two countries’ military-diplomatic partnership – from joint bomber cruises near Alaska to votes in the United Nations Security Council – has helped the Kremlin ease its international isolation.
Although U.S. President Donald Trump has said he has good personal relationships with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, experts in Washington generally believe that the China-Russia partnership poses a threat to U.S. interests. Although former President Joe Biden tried to establish a strategic dialogue with China, the Trump team seems more inclined to prioritize restoring normal relations with Russia while punishing China on trade issues.
As the White House discusses the possibility of resuming economic cooperation with Russia, some officials have hinted at the possibility of lifting or reducing sanctions Washington has imposed on Moscow in recent years.
Charles Hecker, an expert on Western-Russian economic relations and risks and author of Zero Sum: The Arc of International Business in Russia, believes that if sanctions are lifted, some Western companies, especially those in the energy, metals and mining industries, will soon return to the Russian market.
“Norway has limited oil reserves, Canada has limited oil reserves, and most of the remaining oil is in countries with high-risk environments,” Hecker said in an interview with the Russian service of Voice of America (VOA). “These companies are used to doing business in such places and have internal structures to protect themselves. For example, there are still energy companies operating in Iraq. I don’t want to compare Russia and Iraq, but they are both high-risk environments.”
However, Hecker warned that the return of these companies to Russia does not mean a comprehensive easing of US-Russia relations, let alone a breakdown in Sino-Russian relations.
“I think it will be very difficult for the West to alienate Russia from China,” he said.
“Allowing Western companies to return to Russia will not necessarily change President Putin’s hostility toward the West. President Putin remains hostile to the Western-dominated political and economic system, and he has repeatedly stated that he wants to build a political and economic environment outside the West,” he said. “
Part of that alternative system includes China.” He added, “You’ve never heard President Putin make any ideological remarks against China. And the two countries are now important energy partners.”
Limited domestic public support
FilterLabs, based in the United States, specializes in analyzing public opinion in areas where polls are opaque. The agency’s recent assessment of public attitudes on Russian and Chinese social media shows that Sino-Russian relations are “full of fundamental contradictions, distrust and competing interests.”
Vasily Gatov, one of the authors of the report, told VOA that their research found that “Chinese and Russian people are not happy with the alliance of the two countries’ authorities.”
“China does not consider Russia to be a reliable, safe, and equal partner.” He said, “Russia once annexed Chinese land in the Amur River basin (called Heilongjiang in China) and completely adopted a colonial policy towards China in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Therefore, in my opinion, historical friction can be fully regarded as a weak point.”
Gatov, who serves as a media analyst at the Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism at the University of Southern California, also pointed out that although the Kremlin had hoped for China’s economic support, China’s current economic influence in Russia is still “far less than” that of Europe and the United States before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Therefore, although China and Russia have common interests on some issues, the two countries are not “moving in lockstep.”
“They are very different, with completely different geopolitical priorities and political philosophies,” he said.
However, other experts question the Filter Lab’s findings and warn that random readings of Russian and Chinese online opinion have limited value, especially because the people who post them do not influence government decisions.
“People who have the time and interest to comment on current events on social media usually do not have much influence on the formulation of national policy,” Alexander Gabuev, director of the Berlin-based Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told VOA. “These people certainly will not have much influence on whether China supplies weapons parts to Russia or whether Russia supplies certain military technologies to China, because the commentators do not actually understand what is actually happening.” Gabuev added
that “the Chinese leadership has reason to believe that they can learn some lessons from Russian military technology.” He suggested that China is very interested in how Russia’s experience in countering Western weapons in the war in Ukraine.
Does Trump see China as a threat?
Some analysts point out that a key question is whether Washington’s improved relations with Russia will weaken the Sino-Russian alliance, which depends on how Trump views China.
Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy advisor for U.S.-China affairs at the International Crisis Group, believes that Trump is a special case in U.S. policy.
“From the broad bipartisan consensus in Congress to successive administrations, everyone believes that China is the United States’ most important strategic competitor,” he said. “But President Trump is in many ways the most prominent dissenter from this so-called consensus on China.”
“He does not view President Xi Jinping in the way of an adversary,” Wyne said. “He actually calls President Xi Jinping a ‘dear friend.’ He believes that his personal relationship with Xi will be a decisive factor in setting – or resetting – the U.S.-China relationship over the next four years.”